1B Ranks “Gold Mine or fools Gold?”


Rank First Base Team
1 Joey Votto Reds
2 Prince Fielder Tigers
3 Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks
4 Albert Pujols Angels
5 Adrian Gonzalez Dodgers
6 Edwin Encarnacion Blue Jays
7 Chris Davis Orioles
8 Freddie Freeman Braves
9 Anthony Rizzo Cubs
10 Billy Butler Royals
11 Mark Reynolds Indians
12 Allen Craig Cardinals
13 Mitch Moreland Rangers
14 Yonder Alonso Padres
15 Brandon Belt Giants
16 Paul Konerko White Sox
17 Ryan Howard Phillies
18 Brandon Moss Athletics
19 Kendrys Morales Mariners
20 Lance Berkman Rangers
21 Eric Hosmer Royals
22 Corey Hart Brewers
23 Mark Teixeira Yankees
24 Ike Davis Mets
25 Adam LaRoche Nationals
26 Justin Morneau Twins

I found their to be some big differences in opinions on Goldschmidt.ph_502671   ESPN’s mid May rankings http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2013mayranks1B/fantasy-baseball-first-base-rankings-rest-2013-season have his average ranking of 4th for 1B.  Not counting Posey who I feel is much more valuable at catcher.  Rotowire has him at ranked 3rd at 1B http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/playerrank.htm?pos=1B.  However CBS has him ranked 6th by by ,  9th by  and  6th by.  I heard them discuss on their podcast last week that he is a top 8 maybe top 10 1B. Fantasy Baseball : Fantasy News

Goldschmidt has been a hitting machine since he went pro.  I came into this season as a huge fan.  I targeted him everywhere I could and it has paid off.  If you look at his numbers for the two years he spent the minors, he hit 35 hr and .314 avg in high A then followed that up with a 30hr and .306 avg in AA.  This does not include the 8 hr and a .250 avg over 177 PA in the Majors the second year.  That is 73 hrs in his first two years as a pro.  Was his rookie campaign a disappointment with a 20 hr and .286 avg.  This would have been a much bigger deal in any year where there was not a Bryce Harper or a Mike Trout.  They overshadowed him with their super powers and game changing numbers at 19 and 20 years of age.  Yet, Goldschmidt is just 25, although compared to them he is old,  he is just reaching his prime.  He has a walk rate over 9.5% every year of his pro career and a 10.2% his rookie year.  This year he has been at a 12.5% rate while decreasing his strikeout rate each of his last three seasons.  This year it is down  to a 21.8% K  rate.

I believe he is only going to get better.  Get him now if you can, especially in keeper leagues.   I see him growing into a .300 40 hr 15 sb guy.  Hitting in the middle of the line up and  carrying a Babip that seems to be holding above .330 he will be a five category guy.  These numbers at first base will warrant first round value next year.  He has been absolute sold gold value this year with an ADP in the 8th round and an average auction price of $12.  I think that this is NOT a sell high time if you have him, if you do not have him let someone think they are selling high.  In keeper leagues, he may be the best long term 1st base keeper out there.  You as always need to knew your rules to find his keeper value, but I am sure that what ever they are he will be a valuable keeper next year.

Please let me know how you feel about my rankings.  I will gladly offer my reasons for any of the ranks.

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3 comments

  1. fantasyfurnace

    No arguements over your rankings except one. There is no way I would have Ike Davis make my top 25 first basemen list. No way no how! I wouldn’t be able to put him there solely based on what he did last season which was to hit 30+ HRs. It’s almost June. What has this guy done to make this list since April?
    I like your articles-there’s some great stuff here.
    Thanks so much for the follow-Much success to you…

    • Captain Fantasy

      He has been very bad this year. In return can you totally discount last years effort? They say that once a player shows a skill he retains that skill. I think there is still a chance he turns it around. I will note that Adam LaRoche should be higher after his last week. He has turned it around it seems. I almost let him off the list.

      • fantasyfurnace

        In the world of Fantasy Baseball Davis is a 1-2category player. In real baseball even tho he hit 30 homers a seasn ago, he nt only is having a lousy season with his bat, his fielding has also suffered. Just can’t put him in my top 25 based on what he did. Its also based on what he’s doing…
        However I understand why you ave him there…Lets see what he does after three months this year.

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