Counting Calories and ADP’s


Quarter Pounder with Cheese

Went to McDonald’s last week and found that they now tell me how many calories are in my fries.  Oh yeah, and what ever else I pick I get the bad news.  Great that’s just great!  Last thing I need to know when I am picking out my quick meal is how bad it’s going to affect my waistline.  I now have a choice to try to pick without looking at those numbers behind the Double Quarter Pounder or use them to save my waistline.  With my 39th birthday days away, it is not as easy to burn off that Double Quarter Pounder as it once was.   However, using those little numbers beside the menu choices I find that what I thought was a better pick was not as good as I thought.  The Quarter Pounder (the Single) is only slightly higher in points than the Premium Crispy Chicken Sandwich.  Now, don’t get me wrong there are better choices on the menu.  If I use the information they give me, it can help me plan for those times when my boys want happy meals or we need something in a pinch.

Average Draft Position (ADP) can be used to help you plan your draft too.  Every site out has them now, and you should use them. Preseason ranks are great, and I will make mine.  I hope you read them and use them.  Here is the question then.  How do you make those preseason ranks and ADP’s work together to come up with your draft plan?

Read those preseason ranks and notes, digest them, and think of what players you want.  Not their rankings, but what players you believe in.  You need to be reasonable with your wants.  I want a Double Quarter Pounder with the Large Fry.   I can’t eat like that anymore, and if you do not have the first pick, you can’t get Peterson.   This is where the ADP’s come in.  They let you know what you can eat.  I meant who may be available at your pick.  If you just use the preseason ranks, you will draft the next guy off the list.  This may be a guy you hate, don’t trust, or do not need.  Don’t get stuck on rankings.  What’s the point of reading and doing research before the draft, if you are just going to pick the next guy on the list.

Researching ADP’s prior to your draft will allow you to find out where the guys you want are going.  Now, don’t fall into the trap of just looking for values compared to ADP’s.  This is a way some people draft.  If you like popping tags at the thrift store, then this is the style you should use to draft.  However, I like to do my research and get the guys I think will have big years.  Okay, let me get to the point.  I will give you an example.  I am a huge believer in AJ Green.  His ADP is 14.4 at ESPN ( http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults).  If I want him and I am picking 11th, I better take him there.  You may say that he is not a first rounder.  You may be right. I might be crazy.  But, if I take him there, who have I lost?  Just the two guys at picks 12 and 13.  If I wait until the 14th pick, he may be gone.

The key is having a plan on who you want and when you think you can get them.  If you are a Russel Wilson believer and want him as your QB, you need to have a plan to get him.  First, look at his ADP of 51.2 per ESPN.  That puts him in the 5th round.  If you want him and are picking at the end of the 4th, you better take him there.   Don’t wait for him to be a bargain.  Furthermore, if you know someone else in your league wants him and you are picking before him in the fourth round, you should take him before it gets to that guys pick in the 4th round.  If you do not, he will have two chances to take him before you get another pick.  You’re not going to get every guy you want, so have a backup plan.  You also need to have realistic ideas on who you can get.  If I am picking in the top 5, AJ Green is probably not an option.  I will have him slotted as my first option at my second pick.  But, I will not expect to get him.

The point of this plan is to have fun.  I feel picking the guys you think will have big years is more fun than taking the thrift shop guy that you don’t want.   Remember, that the preseason rankings are only a guide.  Don’t get stuck on them.  Plus, things change.  ADP’s are good to look at close to your draft to get an idea of the current market.  It all comes down to this.  I want a Quarter Pounder with cheese.  In the past, I thought that the Premium Crispy Chicken Sandwich was better for me.  Turns out, that if I knew that there was little difference between them, I could have gotten what I wanted and not felt badly.  Same goes for your draft.  If you want Wilson, then get him when you can.  Waiting for him to be a value, will lead to you drafting Romo when everyone else passes on him.  That might work out.  But, what fun is it to own Romo?

Written by Chuck Amspacher Fantasy Writer (@CaptainChuck46)
Read more Great post at http://hofsportstalk.wordpress.com
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