Tom Brady is getting dropped here. He is also dropping in my rankings!
- Aaron Rodgers stands as the #1 QB this year again. He is consistent and a SAFE pick that will give you one of the top QB totals. The only down fall is he will go in the first round. If you want him you better use your mid to late first round pick to get him. His ADP is 9.7 on ESPN http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults and Rotowire www.rotowire.com has his ADP at10.7. If he falls to the second round he is a steal.
- Drew Brees at number two and for many of the same reasons as Rodgers. As with Rodgers, Brees is consistent and I feel safe in thinking he will out perform last years numbers with Payton reinstated as head coach. They are pass happy in New Orleans. If Brees controls his INT this season he could be the #1 QB at seasons end. You will need to get him in the second round.
- Cam Newton is ranked here because he has the ability to carry you team with his legs. He had a down year last year as a sophomore, but he did enough to show he is growing as a QB. He is worth a second round pick to me. However, ADP put him in the third round. I would take him sooner, but don’t let him go past the third if you do not have one of the two guys mentioned above.
- Matt Ryan has improved in each of his first 5 years. Matty Ice may be the on the verge of another leap forward with the weapons they have around him. He may bring the best value of any of the top 10 guys. He currently is a fourth round pick according to ESPN ADP. I would take him in the third. If you go RB-RB with first two picks fill your QB slot with Ryan.
- Andrew Luck has proved he was the most polished QB to come out of the draft since the man he replaced. He may end up better then some of the guys ahead, however I think there is always a chance he does not take any huge steps forward this year. He will at some point in his career be at or near the top of this list. So for those of you in keeper leagues, get him before the 6th Round.
- Peyton Manning was no doubt the come back player of the year last year. He came back from multiple neck surgeries to put up solid numbers. I am way out there on this one I know. But listen, he is 37 years old, he has had multiple neck surgeries, he will score almost 0 points in rushing, and the 37 TD is his highest total since 2004. I know he is going in the 2nd round according to the ADPs I looked at, so I will not own Peyton this year. I am okay with that. You should be too.
- Matthew Stafford is ranked here for what he can do. He has a high ceiling, just not sure I am buying he will ever get there. He has the ultimate weapon in Calvin Johnson which helps his case. With his ADP in the 6th round it seems others are not buying it either. However, my projections put him here. What does this mean? Do I trust my projections or my gut? If I still need a QB in the sixth I will draft him for his value in round sixth round.
- Tom Brady has a very different looking set of receivers this year. He has lost Hernandez and Walker. Who knows for sure when Gronkowski will be back. Even then, how good will he be when he returns from his injuries. Brady is now 35 years old and we may see him start to regress some. This rank may be as much about him as it is about the other QB that are passing him. We are seeing the position depth grow at QB the last few years. This depth and the NFL’s wide open passing rules may push QB’s up the board as their point totals get higher. Add in the fact that there are more offenses featuring two RB. This dilutes the RB pool even more. I am not saying QB’s are going to take over the first round, however there should be more looked at more closely in the 2nd through 5th round.
- Colin Kaepernick has an ADP in the 4th round. He was amazing last year. But, I feel safer with the QBs ahead of him. His passing numbers will be hurt with Crabtree out for what will be most of your fantasy season. Even though I projected him for around 600 yards rushing and 7 Rushing TDs, his passing numbers bring his overall point total down to this 10th place ranking.
- Robert Griffin may be one of the best QBs in the future. Move him way up this list if you are drafting in a keeper league. My concern is that he is being pushed to make Adrian Peterson type of return. No one before Peterson has ever done that. No one may ever do it again. Watch him in preseason and see how he looks. Move him up the list if he is going to be healthy. I however am not going to risk a higher pick on someone coming off an ACL who relies so much on his legs.
- Russell Wilson is yet another player I may not own ranking him here. I feel that he does not through the ball enough to be higher on this list. NFL Defenses are going to make adjustments to all of the running QBs. If he is contained more in the pocket I see the INT rate going up and the Rushing yards going down. We will see how this works out for the undersized QB.
- Tony Romo seems to be losing his shine after throwing 19 INT last year. Yet, somehow puts up lots of fantasy points. This is a much higher ranking then what I have seen in other places. I really just put my projections together and where they fall they fall. His ADP is 78.9 with ESPN and 68.5 on Rotowire. That is almost a full Round difference. I would take him if he drops past 80 and fell like I got a good value. I feel the next four QBs have a higher potential and may look to grab one of them. However, he should be noted as a nice pick who puts up solid numbers year in and year out.