Category: 2013

Review of “Fantasy Life” by Matthew Berry

If you are looking for a book that will make you a better fantasy player this is not it.  Matthew Berry was able to write a whole book and not even give one piece of mediocre advice on how to make your team better. He did not get into stats, much less deep secret stats that the pros use to win their leagues.  What was he thinking?

Turns out he was writing more about the “life” part of the title. TMR (Talented Mr. Roto AKA Matthew Berry) was going to take you on his journey to a happier life.  He does go at length on how you can make your league better. But, really he is telling stories about enjoying your league and life.  Although, I am not sure how getting a tattoo that someone else picks for me makes my life more enjoyable. TMR’s book should be a must read for all you fantasy league commissioners out there.  It will help you find ways to bring your league together. Mostly, it may help you find ways to have even more fun with the people in your league.

I found the book to be very interesting for a different reason than I thought I would.  I found that we have something in common even though Matthew Berry and I have had very different journeys in life. The book was truly about finding a way to enjoy life. I feel that this book should be read by every high school kid or college student looking for direction in life. Nowadays we push our youth to find a career. To pick a path to security or wealth. This is all well and good except, we have so many people unhappy with their jobs and lives.

TMR is able to show you how he was able to find happiness by following his dream. That even though he was somewhat successful in his past career he was not happy. For me this story hit home. I have always felt that people should try to find a career/job that makes them happy. Look work is still work, but if you love what you do the bad days will not seem so bad.

I am an oddity when it comes to finding a career. I know every boy growing up at some point says they want to be a fireman. For me it was different. I got my first job in a factory and joined the volunteer fire company at age 14. I quickly realized that working in a hot factory doing the same task every day was not for me. I also found a second home at the firehouse. I found it fun to go out and help my neighbors, whatever their emergency was. I set out to make firefighting my career. I joined the Army reserves at 17 years old knowing that it would help me land a position as a firefighter.  I attended basic training between my junior and senior years of high school. I then set off to college to earn a degree in Fire Science.  While at college I lived at a firehouse for free as long as I responded on calls for them.  I was offered a firefighter position at age 20. 19 years later I still love my job.  There are bad days at work. I always say those are the days they pay me for. I still love helping the community however I can. I will never be a millionaire as a firefighter, but I feel wealthy in life. I believe that this is the point Matthew Berry is trying to make in his book Fantasy Life.

Matthew Berry did a great job of mixing life and fantasy sports in this book. The book is written in the same way that he writes articles for ESPN and the way he hosts his podcasts for ESPN.  His work always has more in it then just fantasy.  Some people may not like all the fluff, but I think that he is able to spice up a sometimes vanilla topic of fantasy sports.  I mean there are only some many ways to say here are my top QBs this year. The book is inspirational to the point of, find what you love to do in life and then do it. Sometimes you have to climb out on a limb and take that risk to enjoy life.  Hey I am a firefighter, I know about risk.  Take a risk and download the book. From what I know about Matthew Berry he does not even care if you read it.  Although, I suggest that you do.

By Chuck Amspacher @captainchuck46

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WR ADP Ranks as of 8/18/2013

It always amazes me when I watch teams drafting that go right down the sites cheat sheet.  Barring the fact that they are filled at that position they will let their site pick for them.  Why even show up for the draft if this your plan? Just let it auto pick. The key to winning your league is the draft.  You need to prepare for it.  Find ways to get the players you believe in.

There are many reasons for differences in drafts.  You will see the “Homer Effect” when there are many people in your league from the same area. This will create an area for you to take advantage of.  Use your leagues Homerism against them.   Let them reach for their favorite players and steal the ones they let slip by. This works even better in auction leagues where you can run the price up on them.

There are also differences in league set up that can change the way players are drafted. “Format Effect” creates areas for you to take advantage of when you play in a non typical league. Most information out there is set to the sites typical league.  Most of your league mates will only use the standard information. You would do yourself a great service to find those market advantages in your format.

The information below also affects the way a draft will go.  The “Site Affect” is how a site ranks players is reflected in their ADPs .   If that site likes a player, it is reflected in that players ADP. Inversely if they are down on a player it also is reflective in their ADP.   Below I have created a list of three different sites and their ADPs for WR.  I have listed them in order of the average of the three.  I also listed Standard Deviation(STDEV).  When the sites have large differences in the players ADP it will show a higher number for STDEV.  These are players that for some reason on site has more love or more hate for. You can then use this information to decide what players you want to target. By using this and my Counting Calories and ADP’s blog on how to make ADPs work for you, you can dominate your draft by having a plan on who to target and when to get them.

Remember, plan to draft the players you feel are going to make a difference.  Don’t lose your league on draft day by drafting the next guy on the cheat sheet, have a plan!

RANK PLAYER, TEAM POS NFL FOX MDC STDEV AVG
1 Calvin Johnson, Det WR 9.6 8.8 5.42 2.2187 7.9
2 A.J. Green, Cin WR 15.6 18.1 13.78 2.1689 15.8
3 Dez Bryant, Dal WR 18.3 18.9 13.88 2.7416 17.0
4 Brandon Marshall, Chi WR 21.3 16.2 19.02 2.5548 18.8
5 Demaryius Thomas, Den WR 26.4 21.5 17.38 4.5156 21.8
6 Julio Jones, Atl WR 22.6 27.2 17.94 4.63 22.6
7 Larry Fitzgerald, Ari WR 33.9 24.8 26.6 4.8191 28.4
8 Roddy White, Atl WR 29.5 29.6 27.6 1.1269 28.9
9 Andre Johnson, Hou WR 30.3 30.5 32.16 1.021 31.0
10 Victor Cruz, NYG WR 37 35.3 37.08 1.0054 36.5
11 Vincent Jackson, TB WR 33.3 35.5 43.64 5.4469 37.5
12 Randall Cobb, GB WR 35.8 39.6 37.12 1.9293 37.5
13 Marques Colston, NO WR 43.8 44.1 43.78 0.1793 43.9
14 Wes Welker, Den WR 35.8 37.8 68.38 18.26 47.3
15 Jordy Nelson, GB WR 67.4 44.8 34.1 17.001 48.8
16 Dwayne Bowe, KC WR 57.1 59.5 37.22 12.23 51.3
17 Mike Wallace, Mia WR 48.8 51.5 53.82 2.5124 51.4
18 Reggie Wayne, Ind WR 46.3 45.2 66.76 12.143 52.8
19 Danny Amendola, NE WR 46.7 67.8 45.62 12.506 53.4
20 Hakeem Nicks, NYG WR 55.8 59.1 47.78 5.8217 54.2
21 Torrey Smith, Bal WR 68.6 70.9 39.92 17.261 59.8
22 Eric Decker, Den WR 58.8 65.4 57.46 4.2505 60.6
23 Steve Smith, Car WR 56.7 62.1 68.56 5.9379 62.5
24 Antonio Brown, Pit WR 67.9 64.1 61.7 3.1262 64.6
25 Pierre Garcon, Wsh WR 71.5 72.7 58.04 8.1397 67.4
26 DeSean Jackson, Phi WR 69.8 81.2 61.26 10.004 70.8
27 Cecil Shorts, Jac WR 81.3 80.6 53.6 15.794 71.8
28 James Jones, GB WR 60.6 72.2 84.56 11.982 72.5
29 Steve Johnson, Buf WR 86.8 83.9 68.98 9.5618 79.9
30 Anquan Boldin, SF WR 78.3 90.4 73.68 8.6344 80.8
31 Greg Jennings, Min WR 80.7 80.9 93.46 7.3099 85.0
32 Mike Williams, TB WR 100.3 99.5 59.16 23.525 86.3
33 Miles Austin, Dal WR 92.9 86.5 84.04 4.5737 87.8
34 T.Y. Hilton, Ind WR 89.9 92.6 83.16 4.8619 88.6
35 Tavon Austin, StL WR 81.5 120.2 79.36 22.986 93.7
36 Lance Moore, NO WR 102.1 101.1 81.2 11.789 94.8
37 Sidney Rice, Sea WR 89 107.6 88.2 10.977 94.9
38 Kenny Britt, Ten WR 110.2 103.9 71.36 20.845 95.2
39 Denarius Moore, Oak WR 115.7 135.2 87.34 24.066 112.7
40 Josh Gordon, Cle WR 119.3 125.9 93.88 16.907 113.0
41 Emmanuel Sanders, Pit WR 112.7 136.8 109.38 14.965 119.6
42 Chris Givens, StL WR 115.1 143.1 104.1 20.108 120.8
43 Michael Floyd, Ari WR 128.1 143.5 96.62 23.895 122.7
44 Brian Hartline, Mia WR 145.6 133.9 107.84 19.33 129.1
45 Malcom Floyd, SD WR 134.3 147.6 107.04 20.677 129.6
46 Alshon Jeffery, Chi WR 140 142 111.5 17.061 131.2
47 Justin Blackmon, Jac WR 146.1 121.6 127.3 12.82 131.7
48 Golden Tate, Sea WR 119.6 143.4 132.3 11.909 131.8
49 Kendall Wright, Ten WR 137.8 126.5 133.68 5.7186 132.7
50 Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind WR 154.7 148.6 96.82 31.803 133.4
51 Rueben Randle, NYG WR 138.7 149.1 118.58 15.516 135.5
52 DeAndre Hopkins, Hou WR 131.4 144.5 131.4 7.5633 135.8
53 Cordarrelle Patterson, Min WR 140.3 149 122.88 13.3 137.4
54 Ryan Broyles, Det WR 137.6 150.4 136.24 7.8123 141.4
55 Greg Little, Cle WR 159 150.9 118.68 21.329 142.9
56 Aaron Dobson, NE WR 147 150 133.82 8.6072 143.6
57 Vincent Brown, SD WR 128.8 149.3 164.56 17.944 147.6
58 Jacoby Jones, Bal WR 142.7 144.4 167.74 13.992 151.6
59 Austin Collie, SF WR 153.3 150.8 1.7678 152.1
60 Andre Roberts, Ari WR 148.5 150.5 169.8 11.763 156.3
61 Brandon Lloyd, FA WR 143.1 148.5 209.48 36.865 167.0
62 Santana Moss, Wsh WR 147 148.8 209.64 35.657 168.5

Updated QB Rankings

Image

Tom Brady is getting dropped here. He is also dropping in my rankings!

  1.  Aaron Rodgers stands as the #1 QB this year again.  He is consistent and a SAFE pick that will give you one of the top QB totals.  The only down fall is he will go in the first round.  If you want him you better use your mid to late first round pick to get him.  His ADP is 9.7 on ESPN http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults and Rotowire  www.rotowire.com has his ADP at10.7.  If he falls to the second round he is a steal.
  2. Drew Brees at number two and for many of the same reasons as Rodgers.  As with Rodgers, Brees is consistent and I feel safe in thinking he will out perform last years numbers with Payton reinstated as head coach.  They are pass happy in New Orleans.  If Brees controls his INT this season he could be the #1 QB at seasons end.  You will need to get him in the second round.
  3. Cam Newton is ranked here because he has the ability to carry you team with his legs.  He had a down year last year as a sophomore, but he did enough to show he is growing as a QB.   He is worth a second round pick to me.  However,  ADP put him in the third round.  I would take him sooner, but don’t let him go past the third if you do not have one of the two guys mentioned above.
  4. Matt Ryan has improved in each of his first 5 years.  Matty Ice may be the on the verge of another leap forward with the weapons they have around him.  He may bring the best value of any of the top 10 guys.  He currently is a fourth round pick according to ESPN ADP.  I would take him in the third.  If you go RB-RB with first two picks fill your QB slot with Ryan.
  5. Andrew Luck has proved he was the most polished QB to come out of the draft since the man he replaced.  He may end up better then some of the guys ahead, however I think there is always a chance he does not take any huge steps forward this year.  He will at some point in his career be at or near the top of this list.  So for those of you in keeper leagues,  get him before the 6th Round.
  6. Peyton Manning was no doubt the come back player of the year last year.  He came back from multiple neck surgeries to put up solid numbers.  I am way out there on this one I know.  But listen, he is 37 years old, he has had multiple neck surgeries, he will score almost 0 points in rushing, and the 37 TD is his highest total since  2004.  I know he is going in the 2nd round according to the ADPs I looked at, so I will not own Peyton this year.  I am okay with that.  You should be too.
  7. Matthew Stafford is ranked here for what he can do.  He has a high ceiling, just not sure I am buying he will ever get there.  He has the ultimate weapon in Calvin Johnson which helps his case.  With his ADP in the 6th round it seems others are not buying it either.  However,  my projections put him here.  What does this mean? Do I trust my projections or my gut?   If I still need a QB in the sixth I will draft him for his value in round sixth round.
  8. Tom Brady has a very different looking set of receivers this year.  He has lost Hernandez and Walker.  Who knows for sure when Gronkowski will be back.  Even then, how good will he be when he returns from his injuries.  Brady is now 35 years old and we may see him start to regress some.  This rank may be as much about him as it is about the other QB that are passing him.  We are seeing the position  depth grow at QB the last few years.  This depth and the NFL’s wide open passing rules may push QB’s up the board as their point totals get higher.  Add in the fact that there are more offenses featuring two RB.  This dilutes the RB pool even more.  I am not saying QB’s are going to take over the first round, however there should be more looked at more closely in the 2nd through 5th round.
  9. Colin Kaepernick has an ADP in the 4th round.  He was amazing last year.  But, I feel safer with the QBs ahead of him. His passing numbers will be hurt with Crabtree out for what will be most of your fantasy season.  Even though I projected him for around 600 yards rushing and  7 Rushing TDs, his passing numbers bring his overall point total down to this 10th place ranking.
  10. Robert Griffin may be one of the best QBs in the future.  Move him way up this list if you are drafting in a keeper league.  My concern is that he is being pushed to make Adrian Peterson type of return.  No one before Peterson has ever done that.  No one may ever do it again.  Watch him in preseason and see how he looks.  Move him up the list if he is going to be healthy.  I however am not going to risk a higher pick on someone coming off an ACL who relies so much on his legs.
  11. Russell Wilson is yet another player I may not own ranking him here.  I feel that he does not through the ball enough to be higher on this list.  NFL Defenses are going to make adjustments to all of the  running QBs.  If he is contained more in the pocket I see the INT rate going up and the Rushing yards going down.  We will see how this works out for the undersized QB.
  12. Tony Romo seems to be losing his shine after throwing 19 INT last year.  Yet, somehow puts up lots of fantasy points.    This is a much higher ranking then what I have seen in other places.  I really just put my projections together and where they fall they fall. His ADP is 78.9 with ESPN and 68.5 on Rotowire.  That is almost a full Round difference.  I would take him if he drops past 80 and fell like I got a good value.   I feel the next four QBs have a higher potential and may look to grab one of them.  However, he should be noted as a nice pick who puts up solid numbers year in and year out.
13 Andy Dalton
14 Eli Manning
15 Joe Flacco
16 Carson Palmer
17 Josh Freeman
18 Matt Schaub
19 Ryan Tannehill
20 Philip Rivers
21 Sam Bradford
22 Jake Locker
23 Alex Smith
24 Jay Cutler
25 Ben Roethlisberger
26 Michael Vick
27 Christian Ponder
28 Brandon Weeden
29 Matt Flynn
30 EJ Manuel
31 Geno Smith
32 Chad Henne
33 Blaine Gabbert
34 Matt Barkley
35 Jason Campbell
36 Kirk Cousins
37 Kevin Kolb
38 Matt Cassel
39 Colt McCoy
40 Matt Hasselbeck

Fantasy RB 13-24

MJD

13. Maurice Jones-Drew – Bounce  Back year for MJD.  His biggest hill to climb is the lack of offensive options for the Jags.  With that said they will lean on MJD and he will return to form this year.

14. Steven Ridley – No reason to believe that Ridley can’t repeat last years numbers, as long as NE stays with Ridley as they did last year.

15. Matt Forte – I like Forte, but not as much as many others.  So ranking him here means I will not own him this year.  My issue is that Bush gets all the goal line action.  However, PPR leagues should move him up to top 12 RB.

16. Frank Gore – The Question here is, How much gas is left in Gore’s Tank?  He is the main man in SF so if there is fuel in the tank he will be a good RB2 option.

17. DeMarco Murray – Injury concerns are the reason for this ranking.  A healthy Murray could be a top 12 back.  Draft and hope for health. Then go get a quality RB3 just in case.

18. David Wilson – Should be the man in NYG backfield.  However, watch how he and Andre Brown are used in the preseason.  Also, Handcuff Brown if you can.

19.  Reggie Bush – Now with the Lions and reported to be a key part of their offense this year.  Could be a nice sleeper for you.  PPR leagues should be drooling!

20. Darren McFadden – See DeMarco Murray

21.  Ryan Mathews –  For you Fantasy Focus listeners this is for you.  Mathews has been my fantasy kryptonite.  He should be better, but injuries and the fact he has not proven it makes him a risky RB2.

22. Montee Ball – Rookie, Skill, good offense, but can he protect Manning is the question.  If he can, he will be a top 12 RB.   However, he will not be on the field if he can not pick up the blocks in pass protection.  Great upside, at 22 ranked RB.

23. Le’Veon Bell – Rookie #2.  I feel that his upside is not as high as Balls.  His path to carries seems to be clearer.  He is a good fit for the Steelers.

24.  Darren Sproles – He is a RB by name, but a receiver is his job.  PPR league should take him as a strong RB2.  Non PPR leagues should not look at rushing totals.  They should look at the whole man and see someone who is a favorite target for an elite QB on a passing team.

Is It Time To Build For The Future?

Keeper leagues are my favorite fantasy league to be a part of.   There is always a reason to check your team, do research, and dream of your team taking home multiple titles.  As a whole, I find that keeper leagues keep people’s attention which creates an environment favorable for trading.  I have used this time of year to make trades that have pushed my teams to titles and also to build for the future.  Just last year I found myself in no mans land in the rankings.  I had a limited chance to make a run to just get in the money.  I decided it would do me better to build for the future.  It was time to have the great sell off.  The thing you want to make sure of in your sell off is that you have a plan for the future.

How do you build that fantasy dynasty?  First rule is to always build with position players.  The amount of injuries that pitchers have along with the fact that there are very few pitchers who year in year out are great.  The ones that are constantly  good are already priced at a level that lessons their keeper value.  Hitters have a much more steady track record.  You still have the ups and downs with some(Jason Heyward), but there are many more hitters than pitchers sustaining a certain level of production.

Now that we are focused on hitters, lets look at your current keepers?  Where are you strong, and where do you have holes?  The last thing you want to do is handcuff yourself with 3 first basemen.  Do not limit your roster flexibility, even though they may all be values.  Find the positions you need to fill and then start looking for players that have good keeper value at that position.  Hopefully, you will find one on a team in or near contention.  Putting that team in the WIN NOW mode.

Next, you need to KNOW the team and the owner of the player you covet.  No not who they are, but how they run their team, what type of players they like, what they think they need to win, and how much do they like the player you want.  If this is a keeper league, you probably have been playing more than this year.  If so, I always look back and try to see how that owner builds their rosters.  Who they bid on.  What kind of players they bid an extra $1 on.  This will give you an idea of what type of player to offer them.  Also, look at what trades they have made in the past.  Have they given up young talent in the past to try to win now?  Have they traded a star player for a closer before?  Do they have a log jam at a position?  Do they have a significant lead in a category?  Is there a category where they are close to or bunched up with other teams.  Last, is to find out how much they like the player you want and if there are any guys you have that they want.  Its great when you get a chance to talk to the guys in your league about baseball.  There is always information to be gleaned from these conversations.  They want to tell you how this guy they drafted is amazing, or how they are not sure what to do with the three first basemen they have.  People want to tell you their thoughts on their team.  Let Them!!!

This seems like a lot of research, right?  Well, yes it is.  However, if you want to build that dynasty, you need to take the time to find a player with keeper value.  One that will turn a profit for years.  You then need to move players that are not going to have keeper value to you.  Remember, for every team that is trying to rebuild there is one trying to WIN NOW.  That guy does not care if he has to dump a bunch of players at the season’s end.  His goal is to get that trophy, yahoo bath, bragging rights, or cold hard cash NOW.  Help him win today, let him help you win next year, and the next year, and …

It is not easy to decide to rebuild.  I had to make that choice last year in my Home league.  It was time to rebuild after finishing in the money two out of the last three seasons and a near miss in the other.  My team had some cap issues and contract issues.  I had been that WIN NOW guy.  Which is what you should be almost every year.  I hate giving up.  Even worse is looking at the standings for the last month and seeing my team drop to dead last.  I ended with one of the leagues lowest point totals ever.  It is worth it now as I have just moved into first place in that league.   Amazing that one year ago I chose to rebuild and ended the season in dead last.  I feel good about my team, and think I am set up for the next few years.  However, I will be working those trading lines from the other side this year.  Back in my WIN NOW mode!!!!

QB Rankings for 2013 Season

Image

Tom Brady is getting dropped here. He is also dropping in my rankings!

  1.  Aaron Rodgers stands as the #1 QB this year again.  He is consistent and a SAFE pick that will give you one of the top QB totals.  The only down fall is he will go in the first round.  If you want him you better use your mid to late first round pick to get him.  His ADP is 9.7 on ESPN http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults and Rotowire  www.rotowire.com has his ADP at10.7.  If he falls to the second round he is a steal.
  2. Drew Brees at number two and for many of the same reasons as Rodgers.  As with Rodgers, Brees is consistent and I feel safe in thinking he will out perform last years numbers with Payton reinstated as head coach.  They are pass happy in New Orleans.  If Brees controls his INT this season he could be the #1 QB at seasons end.  You will need to get him in the second round.
  3. Cam Newton is ranked here because he has the ability to carry you team with his legs.  He had a down year last year as a sophomore, but he did enough to show he is growing as a QB.   He is worth a second round pick to me.  However,  ADP put him in the third round.  I would take him sooner, but don’t let him go past the third if you do not have one of the two guys mentioned above.
  4. Matt Ryan has improved in each of his first 5 years.  Matty Ice may be the on the verge of another leap forward with the weapons they have around him.  He may bring the best value of any of the top 10 guys.  He currently is a fourth round pick according to ESPN ADP.  I would take him in the third.  If you go RB-RB with first two picks fill your QB slot with Ryan.
  5. Matthew Stafford is ranked here for what he can do.  He has a high ceiling, just not sure I am buying he will ever get there.  He has the ultimate weapon in Calvin Johnson which helps his case.  With his ADP in the 6th round it seems others are not buying it either.  However,  my projections put him here.  What does this mean? Do I trust my projections or my gut?   If I still need a QB in the sixth I will draft him for his value in round sixth round.
  6. Andrew Luck has proved he was the most polished QB to come out of the draft since the man he replaced.  He may end up better then some of the guys ahead, however I think there is always a chance he does not take any huge steps forward this year.  He will at some point in his career be at or near the top of this list.  So for those of you in keeper leagues,  get him before the 6th Round.
  7. Tom Brady has a very different looking set of receivers this year.  He has lost Hernandez and Walker.  Who knows for sure when Gronkowski will be back.  Even then, how good will he be when he returns from his injuries.  Brady is now 35 years old and we may see him start to regress some.  This rank may be as much about him as it is about the other QB that are passing him.  We are seeing the position  depth grow at QB the last few years.  This depth and the NFL’s wide open passing rules may push QB’s up the board as their point totals get higher.  Add in the fact that there are more offenses featuring two RB.  This dilutes the RB pool even more.  I am not saying QB’s are going to take over the first round, however there should be more looked at more closely in the 2nd through 5th round.
  8. Tony Romo seems to be losing his shine after throwing 19 INT last year.  Yet, somehow puts up lots of fantasy points.    This is a much higher ranking then what I have seen in other places.  I really just put my projections together and where they fall they fall. His ADP is 78.9 with ESPN and 68.5 on Rotowire.  That is almost a full Round difference.  I would take him if he drops past 80 and fell like I got a good value.   I feel the next four QBs have a higher potential and may look to grab one of them.  However, he should be noted as a nice pick who puts up solid numbers year in and year out.
  9. Peyton Manning was no doubt the come back player of the year last year.  He came back from multiple neck surgeries to put up solid numbers.  I am way out there on this one I know.  But listen, he is 37 years old, he has had multiple neck surgeries, he will score almost 0 points in rushing, and the 37 TD is his highest total since  2004.  I know he is going in the 2nd round according to the ADPs I looked at, so I will not own Peyton this year.  I am okay with that.  You should be too.
  10. Colin Kaepernick has an ADP in the 4th round.  He was amazing last year.  But, I feel safer with the QBs ahead of him. His passing numbers will be hurt with Crabtree out for what will be most of your fantasy season.  Even though I projected him for around 600 yards rushing and  7 Rushing TDs, his passing numbers bring his overall point total down to this 10th place ranking.
  11. Robert Griffin may be one of the best QBs in the future.  Move him way up this list if you are drafting in a keeper league.  My concern is that he is being pushed to make Adrian Peterson type of return.  No one before Peterson has ever done that.  No one may ever do it again.  Watch him in preseason and see how he looks.  Move him up the list if he is going to be healthy.  I however am not going to risk a higher pick on someone coming off an ACL who relies so much on his legs.
  12. Russell Wilson is yet another player I may not own ranking him here.  I feel that he does not through the ball enough to be higher on this list.  NFL Defenses are going to make adjustments to all of the  running QBs.  If he is contained more in the pocket I see the INT rate going up and the Rushing yards going down.  We will see how this works out for the undersized QB.
13 Andy Dalton
14 Eli Manning
15 Joe Flacco
16 Carson Palmer
17 Josh Freeman
18 Matt Schaub
19 Ryan Tannehill
20 Philip Rivers
21 Sam Bradford
22 Jake Locker
23 Alex Smith
24 Jay Cutler
25 Ben Roethlisberger
26 Michael Vick
27 Christian Ponder
28 Brandon Weeden
29 Matt Flynn
30 EJ Manuel
31 Geno Smith
32 Chad Henne
33 Blaine Gabbert
34 Matt Barkley
35 Jason Campbell
36 Kirk Cousins
37 Kevin Kolb
38 Matt Cassel
39 Colt McCoy
40 Matt Hasselbeck

Mock Draft

Well, a few weeks ago, I completed my first Mock draft (mock1 2013) of the year at www.mockdraftcentral.com .  This was standard scoring with the following  rosters;

Pos Starters Max
QB 2 2
RB 2 2
WR 3 3
TE 1 1
RB/WR/TE 1 1 (RB, TE, WR)
K 1 1
DEF 1 1
BENCH 5 5 (DEF, K, QB, RB, TE, WR)

I use a method of value over replacement player that has worked for me.  With this roster make up there is a higher premium on QB’s and WR’s.  Where in many leagues with only 1 QB and 2 WR  the value of RB’s is high.  This makes them fill most of round one and two picks.  Using my value over replacement method you now have to go much farther down the list to get your replacement values for QB and WR.  This greatly increases the difference in the top QB’s and WR’s verses their replacements.  Anyone drafting from a magazine list may be at a great disadvantage.  When playing in any league format matters in building your draft strategy.

I picked 10th out of 10 teams.

Pick 10  QB Cam Newton, CAR  – I like Cam as a high point man from the QB position, with hopes that he has just enough experience this year to break out.

Pick 11  WR A.J. Green, CIN – Green stand far and above all WR not named Clavin Johnson

Pick 30  RB Maurice Jones-Drew, JAX – Look for a bounce back year from MJD

Pick 31  QB Andrew Luck, IND – I expect growth from an already fine QB

Pick 50  RB DeMarco Murray, DAL – RB are slim here

Pick 51  WR Michael Crabtree, SF – Showed signs of his first round talent last year, I expect him to show more this year.

Pick 70  TE Vernon Davis, SF – Okay this may be a stretch for Vernon,  he was my favorite TE still out there and wanted to secure him

Pick 71  WR Torrey Smith, BAL – Due to lack of RB I want for more depth at WR Smith is a good wild card here

Pick 90 RB Jonathan Stewart, CAR – I needed RB’s with next too picks

Pick 91  RB Vick Ballard, IND

Pick 110  TE Greg Olsen, CAR

Pick 111  QB Jake Locker, TEN – I think I should have found a better back up  earlier with Newton’s plauying style.

Pick 130 TE Jared Cook, STL

Pick 131  WR Denarius Moore, OAK – Looked for a lottery ticket with this pick

Pick 150  K Justin Tucker, BAL – K and Defense last. As always there is not a great point difference with these positions.  WAIT WAIT WAIT!!!

Pick 151   DEF Detroit Lions, DET

All tolled my numbers show Mike Gottlieb ‏ @SportsByGotti having the best starting line up.  There are then several of us close for second but my numbers have my team as second for starting line up.  I also show my team as having the best total points.  Neither of these can be sure to show the best team at years end.  Picking line ups and match ups is huge.

1B Ranks “Gold Mine or fools Gold?”

Rank First Base Team
1 Joey Votto Reds
2 Prince Fielder Tigers
3 Paul Goldschmidt Diamondbacks
4 Albert Pujols Angels
5 Adrian Gonzalez Dodgers
6 Edwin Encarnacion Blue Jays
7 Chris Davis Orioles
8 Freddie Freeman Braves
9 Anthony Rizzo Cubs
10 Billy Butler Royals
11 Mark Reynolds Indians
12 Allen Craig Cardinals
13 Mitch Moreland Rangers
14 Yonder Alonso Padres
15 Brandon Belt Giants
16 Paul Konerko White Sox
17 Ryan Howard Phillies
18 Brandon Moss Athletics
19 Kendrys Morales Mariners
20 Lance Berkman Rangers
21 Eric Hosmer Royals
22 Corey Hart Brewers
23 Mark Teixeira Yankees
24 Ike Davis Mets
25 Adam LaRoche Nationals
26 Justin Morneau Twins

I found their to be some big differences in opinions on Goldschmidt.ph_502671   ESPN’s mid May rankings http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2013mayranks1B/fantasy-baseball-first-base-rankings-rest-2013-season have his average ranking of 4th for 1B.  Not counting Posey who I feel is much more valuable at catcher.  Rotowire has him at ranked 3rd at 1B http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/playerrank.htm?pos=1B.  However CBS has him ranked 6th by by ,  9th by  and  6th by.  I heard them discuss on their podcast last week that he is a top 8 maybe top 10 1B. Fantasy Baseball : Fantasy News

Goldschmidt has been a hitting machine since he went pro.  I came into this season as a huge fan.  I targeted him everywhere I could and it has paid off.  If you look at his numbers for the two years he spent the minors, he hit 35 hr and .314 avg in high A then followed that up with a 30hr and .306 avg in AA.  This does not include the 8 hr and a .250 avg over 177 PA in the Majors the second year.  That is 73 hrs in his first two years as a pro.  Was his rookie campaign a disappointment with a 20 hr and .286 avg.  This would have been a much bigger deal in any year where there was not a Bryce Harper or a Mike Trout.  They overshadowed him with their super powers and game changing numbers at 19 and 20 years of age.  Yet, Goldschmidt is just 25, although compared to them he is old,  he is just reaching his prime.  He has a walk rate over 9.5% every year of his pro career and a 10.2% his rookie year.  This year he has been at a 12.5% rate while decreasing his strikeout rate each of his last three seasons.  This year it is down  to a 21.8% K  rate.

I believe he is only going to get better.  Get him now if you can, especially in keeper leagues.   I see him growing into a .300 40 hr 15 sb guy.  Hitting in the middle of the line up and  carrying a Babip that seems to be holding above .330 he will be a five category guy.  These numbers at first base will warrant first round value next year.  He has been absolute sold gold value this year with an ADP in the 8th round and an average auction price of $12.  I think that this is NOT a sell high time if you have him, if you do not have him let someone think they are selling high.  In keeper leagues, he may be the best long term 1st base keeper out there.  You as always need to knew your rules to find his keeper value, but I am sure that what ever they are he will be a valuable keeper next year.

Please let me know how you feel about my rankings.  I will gladly offer my reasons for any of the ranks.