I used the composite projections supplied by Fantasy411 @ http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/ to make hitter and now Pitcher values for ESPN standard leagues. Use these values to help you in your ESPN standard leagues.
The composite projections take an average of up to 14 different projections. This gives you a great average of all high and low projections. Which makes these very safe estimates. I feel that these values should are then also very safe. I feel anyone you can get at the prices listed here is a good value.This means that there is a little wiggle room for the players you have a good feeling about. You will need to make adjustments for players values as the position battles work themselves out.
I used the composite projections supplied by Fantasy411 @ http://fantasy411.mlblogs.com/ to make hitter values for ESPN standard leagues. Use these values to help you in your ESPN standard leagues. Look for Pitcher Values soon!
1. Buster Posey
He should have plenty PA with the new Posey rule in effect to help protect him from injury. This is not to mention the fact that the Giants seem to find ways to keep his bat in the line up by utilizing him at first base and DH in interleague play. So you can expect non typical PA for a Catcher from Posey. This makes him my top catcher this year.
2. Carlos Santana
Santana is another candidate who will have a high PA total for a Catcher as the Indians used him at first base and DH last year. Now there is even talk of putting him at third base. I am not sure how that will work out but it shows their commitment to get him to the plate.
3. Joe Mauer
It may be the last year we can list Mauer under the catcher section. This is good news for this year, however he does not have the power to be a top level first baseman. With that said his double digit home runs and .300 plus average and counting stats look great at catcher. Lets hope that they find him 20 games at catcher so he can continue to help fantasy owners fill their catcher spot.
4. Yadier Molina
If we were talking about real baseball he would be the top catcher no doubt! However, this is fake baseball and he still is a guy you want. They have to beg him to come out of the line up. He has a very good line up around him that combined with a plus .300 average and double digit power will give you good counting stats from a catcher.
5. Jonathan Lucroy
Hitting his prime years Lucroy could have breakout potential. He has upside of 20 home runs and .300 average. I could see him ending the year as the top catcher. He has hit .320 in 2012 and had 18 HR last year. He is a good value as the fifth catcher.
6. Brian McCann
If he can stay healthy he should be a great fit for the Yankees. He hit 20 plus homer runs for 6 staight years in Atlanta. With the change in scenery he may approach 30 Home runs. If you wait and can get McCann late he is a steal.
7. Wilin Rosario
There is a lot to love about Wilin, power, average, and Colorado. But, wait he had just a 1% bb rate in the second half! This does not make me feel very comfortable as we’ve seen this kind of plate discipline wreck a guys potential. [See Francoeur] If he can not find a way to take a walk it could lead to a major step back. I will avoid him this year but, I understand why some will take the chance.
8. Matt Wieters
He has had 20 plus home runs the last three years, but his batting average and obp have not been impressive. He shows the ability to improve and catchers are often late bloomers. So he is a good choice if you miss out on top catchers or wait till late in single catcher leagues.
9. Salvador Perez
If you are looking for a breakout candidate Sal may be your man. He is young enough to take the next step, has shown the skills, and I think it is only a matter of time till he breaks out. He has the ability to hit .300 with 20 plus bombs.
10 Wilson Ramos
He could be a top catcher if he could stay on the field. 16 round trippers in under 300 at bats. With his good contact rate he could be an average helper, too. In single catcher leagues he is a great option as there will be good options on the free agent list if he can’t stay on the field.
11. Evan Gattis
El oso blanco forced his way into 354 at bats. The Braves let McCann walk so he will have a shot at 400 to 500 at bats and maybe more if the use him in left field again. Be aware that the Braves brought in Doumit and have Bethancourt climbing the organizatioal ladder. One or both may steal PA from the white bear. He is a great story and carries a big stick so 20 to 30 home runs are possible. We will see if he can handle the role or if he will end up chasing odd jobs again.
It always amazes me when I watch teams drafting that go right down the sites cheat sheet. Barring the fact that they are filled at that position they will let their site pick for them. Why even show up for the draft if this your plan? Just let it auto pick. The key to winning your league is the draft. You need to prepare for it. Find ways to get the players you believe in.
There are many reasons for differences in drafts. You will see the “Homer Effect” when there are many people in your league from the same area. This will create an area for you to take advantage of. Use your leagues Homerism against them. Let them reach for their favorite players and steal the ones they let slip by. This works even better in auction leagues where you can run the price up on them.
There are also differences in league set up that can change the way players are drafted. “Format Effect” creates areas for you to take advantage of when you play in a non typical league. Most information out there is set to the sites typical league. Most of your league mates will only use the standard information. You would do yourself a great service to find those market advantages in your format.
The information below also affects the way a draft will go. The “Site Affect” is how a site ranks players is reflected in their ADPs . If that site likes a player, it is reflected in that players ADP. Inversely if they are down on a player it also is reflective in their ADP. Below I have created a list of three different sites and their ADPs for WR. I have listed them in order of the average of the three. I also listed Standard Deviation(STDEV). When the sites have large differences in the players ADP it will show a higher number for STDEV. These are players that for some reason on site has more love or more hate for. You can then use this information to decide what players you want to target. By using this and my Counting Calories and ADP’s blog on how to make ADPs work for you, you can dominate your draft by having a plan on who to target and when to get them.
Remember, plan to draft the players you feel are going to make a difference. Don’t lose your league on draft day by drafting the next guy on the cheat sheet, have a plan!
|1||Calvin Johnson, Det||WR||9.6||8.8||5.42||2.2187||7.9|
|2||A.J. Green, Cin||WR||15.6||18.1||13.78||2.1689||15.8|
|3||Dez Bryant, Dal||WR||18.3||18.9||13.88||2.7416||17.0|
|4||Brandon Marshall, Chi||WR||21.3||16.2||19.02||2.5548||18.8|
|5||Demaryius Thomas, Den||WR||26.4||21.5||17.38||4.5156||21.8|
|6||Julio Jones, Atl||WR||22.6||27.2||17.94||4.63||22.6|
|7||Larry Fitzgerald, Ari||WR||33.9||24.8||26.6||4.8191||28.4|
|8||Roddy White, Atl||WR||29.5||29.6||27.6||1.1269||28.9|
|9||Andre Johnson, Hou||WR||30.3||30.5||32.16||1.021||31.0|
|10||Victor Cruz, NYG||WR||37||35.3||37.08||1.0054||36.5|
|11||Vincent Jackson, TB||WR||33.3||35.5||43.64||5.4469||37.5|
|12||Randall Cobb, GB||WR||35.8||39.6||37.12||1.9293||37.5|
|13||Marques Colston, NO||WR||43.8||44.1||43.78||0.1793||43.9|
|14||Wes Welker, Den||WR||35.8||37.8||68.38||18.26||47.3|
|15||Jordy Nelson, GB||WR||67.4||44.8||34.1||17.001||48.8|
|16||Dwayne Bowe, KC||WR||57.1||59.5||37.22||12.23||51.3|
|17||Mike Wallace, Mia||WR||48.8||51.5||53.82||2.5124||51.4|
|18||Reggie Wayne, Ind||WR||46.3||45.2||66.76||12.143||52.8|
|19||Danny Amendola, NE||WR||46.7||67.8||45.62||12.506||53.4|
|20||Hakeem Nicks, NYG||WR||55.8||59.1||47.78||5.8217||54.2|
|21||Torrey Smith, Bal||WR||68.6||70.9||39.92||17.261||59.8|
|22||Eric Decker, Den||WR||58.8||65.4||57.46||4.2505||60.6|
|23||Steve Smith, Car||WR||56.7||62.1||68.56||5.9379||62.5|
|24||Antonio Brown, Pit||WR||67.9||64.1||61.7||3.1262||64.6|
|25||Pierre Garcon, Wsh||WR||71.5||72.7||58.04||8.1397||67.4|
|26||DeSean Jackson, Phi||WR||69.8||81.2||61.26||10.004||70.8|
|27||Cecil Shorts, Jac||WR||81.3||80.6||53.6||15.794||71.8|
|28||James Jones, GB||WR||60.6||72.2||84.56||11.982||72.5|
|29||Steve Johnson, Buf||WR||86.8||83.9||68.98||9.5618||79.9|
|30||Anquan Boldin, SF||WR||78.3||90.4||73.68||8.6344||80.8|
|31||Greg Jennings, Min||WR||80.7||80.9||93.46||7.3099||85.0|
|32||Mike Williams, TB||WR||100.3||99.5||59.16||23.525||86.3|
|33||Miles Austin, Dal||WR||92.9||86.5||84.04||4.5737||87.8|
|34||T.Y. Hilton, Ind||WR||89.9||92.6||83.16||4.8619||88.6|
|35||Tavon Austin, StL||WR||81.5||120.2||79.36||22.986||93.7|
|36||Lance Moore, NO||WR||102.1||101.1||81.2||11.789||94.8|
|37||Sidney Rice, Sea||WR||89||107.6||88.2||10.977||94.9|
|38||Kenny Britt, Ten||WR||110.2||103.9||71.36||20.845||95.2|
|39||Denarius Moore, Oak||WR||115.7||135.2||87.34||24.066||112.7|
|40||Josh Gordon, Cle||WR||119.3||125.9||93.88||16.907||113.0|
|41||Emmanuel Sanders, Pit||WR||112.7||136.8||109.38||14.965||119.6|
|42||Chris Givens, StL||WR||115.1||143.1||104.1||20.108||120.8|
|43||Michael Floyd, Ari||WR||128.1||143.5||96.62||23.895||122.7|
|44||Brian Hartline, Mia||WR||145.6||133.9||107.84||19.33||129.1|
|45||Malcom Floyd, SD||WR||134.3||147.6||107.04||20.677||129.6|
|46||Alshon Jeffery, Chi||WR||140||142||111.5||17.061||131.2|
|47||Justin Blackmon, Jac||WR||146.1||121.6||127.3||12.82||131.7|
|48||Golden Tate, Sea||WR||119.6||143.4||132.3||11.909||131.8|
|49||Kendall Wright, Ten||WR||137.8||126.5||133.68||5.7186||132.7|
|50||Darrius Heyward-Bey, Ind||WR||154.7||148.6||96.82||31.803||133.4|
|51||Rueben Randle, NYG||WR||138.7||149.1||118.58||15.516||135.5|
|52||DeAndre Hopkins, Hou||WR||131.4||144.5||131.4||7.5633||135.8|
|53||Cordarrelle Patterson, Min||WR||140.3||149||122.88||13.3||137.4|
|54||Ryan Broyles, Det||WR||137.6||150.4||136.24||7.8123||141.4|
|55||Greg Little, Cle||WR||159||150.9||118.68||21.329||142.9|
|56||Aaron Dobson, NE||WR||147||150||133.82||8.6072||143.6|
|57||Vincent Brown, SD||WR||128.8||149.3||164.56||17.944||147.6|
|58||Jacoby Jones, Bal||WR||142.7||144.4||167.74||13.992||151.6|
|59||Austin Collie, SF||WR||153.3||150.8||1.7678||152.1|
|60||Andre Roberts, Ari||WR||148.5||150.5||169.8||11.763||156.3|
|61||Brandon Lloyd, FA||WR||143.1||148.5||209.48||36.865||167.0|
|62||Santana Moss, Wsh||WR||147||148.8||209.64||35.657||168.5|
Tom Brady is getting dropped here. He is also dropping in my rankings!
- Aaron Rodgers stands as the #1 QB this year again. He is consistent and a SAFE pick that will give you one of the top QB totals. The only down fall is he will go in the first round. If you want him you better use your mid to late first round pick to get him. His ADP is 9.7 on ESPN http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults and Rotowire www.rotowire.com has his ADP at10.7. If he falls to the second round he is a steal.
- Drew Brees at number two and for many of the same reasons as Rodgers. As with Rodgers, Brees is consistent and I feel safe in thinking he will out perform last years numbers with Payton reinstated as head coach. They are pass happy in New Orleans. If Brees controls his INT this season he could be the #1 QB at seasons end. You will need to get him in the second round.
- Cam Newton is ranked here because he has the ability to carry you team with his legs. He had a down year last year as a sophomore, but he did enough to show he is growing as a QB. He is worth a second round pick to me. However, ADP put him in the third round. I would take him sooner, but don’t let him go past the third if you do not have one of the two guys mentioned above.
- Matt Ryan has improved in each of his first 5 years. Matty Ice may be the on the verge of another leap forward with the weapons they have around him. He may bring the best value of any of the top 10 guys. He currently is a fourth round pick according to ESPN ADP. I would take him in the third. If you go RB-RB with first two picks fill your QB slot with Ryan.
- Andrew Luck has proved he was the most polished QB to come out of the draft since the man he replaced. He may end up better then some of the guys ahead, however I think there is always a chance he does not take any huge steps forward this year. He will at some point in his career be at or near the top of this list. So for those of you in keeper leagues, get him before the 6th Round.
- Peyton Manning was no doubt the come back player of the year last year. He came back from multiple neck surgeries to put up solid numbers. I am way out there on this one I know. But listen, he is 37 years old, he has had multiple neck surgeries, he will score almost 0 points in rushing, and the 37 TD is his highest total since 2004. I know he is going in the 2nd round according to the ADPs I looked at, so I will not own Peyton this year. I am okay with that. You should be too.
- Matthew Stafford is ranked here for what he can do. He has a high ceiling, just not sure I am buying he will ever get there. He has the ultimate weapon in Calvin Johnson which helps his case. With his ADP in the 6th round it seems others are not buying it either. However, my projections put him here. What does this mean? Do I trust my projections or my gut? If I still need a QB in the sixth I will draft him for his value in round sixth round.
- Tom Brady has a very different looking set of receivers this year. He has lost Hernandez and Walker. Who knows for sure when Gronkowski will be back. Even then, how good will he be when he returns from his injuries. Brady is now 35 years old and we may see him start to regress some. This rank may be as much about him as it is about the other QB that are passing him. We are seeing the position depth grow at QB the last few years. This depth and the NFL’s wide open passing rules may push QB’s up the board as their point totals get higher. Add in the fact that there are more offenses featuring two RB. This dilutes the RB pool even more. I am not saying QB’s are going to take over the first round, however there should be more looked at more closely in the 2nd through 5th round.
- Colin Kaepernick has an ADP in the 4th round. He was amazing last year. But, I feel safer with the QBs ahead of him. His passing numbers will be hurt with Crabtree out for what will be most of your fantasy season. Even though I projected him for around 600 yards rushing and 7 Rushing TDs, his passing numbers bring his overall point total down to this 10th place ranking.
- Robert Griffin may be one of the best QBs in the future. Move him way up this list if you are drafting in a keeper league. My concern is that he is being pushed to make Adrian Peterson type of return. No one before Peterson has ever done that. No one may ever do it again. Watch him in preseason and see how he looks. Move him up the list if he is going to be healthy. I however am not going to risk a higher pick on someone coming off an ACL who relies so much on his legs.
- Russell Wilson is yet another player I may not own ranking him here. I feel that he does not through the ball enough to be higher on this list. NFL Defenses are going to make adjustments to all of the running QBs. If he is contained more in the pocket I see the INT rate going up and the Rushing yards going down. We will see how this works out for the undersized QB.
- Tony Romo seems to be losing his shine after throwing 19 INT last year. Yet, somehow puts up lots of fantasy points. This is a much higher ranking then what I have seen in other places. I really just put my projections together and where they fall they fall. His ADP is 78.9 with ESPN and 68.5 on Rotowire. That is almost a full Round difference. I would take him if he drops past 80 and fell like I got a good value. I feel the next four QBs have a higher potential and may look to grab one of them. However, he should be noted as a nice pick who puts up solid numbers year in and year out.
13. Maurice Jones-Drew – Bounce Back year for MJD. His biggest hill to climb is the lack of offensive options for the Jags. With that said they will lean on MJD and he will return to form this year.
14. Steven Ridley – No reason to believe that Ridley can’t repeat last years numbers, as long as NE stays with Ridley as they did last year.
15. Matt Forte – I like Forte, but not as much as many others. So ranking him here means I will not own him this year. My issue is that Bush gets all the goal line action. However, PPR leagues should move him up to top 12 RB.
16. Frank Gore – The Question here is, How much gas is left in Gore’s Tank? He is the main man in SF so if there is fuel in the tank he will be a good RB2 option.
17. DeMarco Murray – Injury concerns are the reason for this ranking. A healthy Murray could be a top 12 back. Draft and hope for health. Then go get a quality RB3 just in case.
18. David Wilson – Should be the man in NYG backfield. However, watch how he and Andre Brown are used in the preseason. Also, Handcuff Brown if you can.
19. Reggie Bush – Now with the Lions and reported to be a key part of their offense this year. Could be a nice sleeper for you. PPR leagues should be drooling!
20. Darren McFadden – See DeMarco Murray
21. Ryan Mathews – For you Fantasy Focus listeners this is for you. Mathews has been my fantasy kryptonite. He should be better, but injuries and the fact he has not proven it makes him a risky RB2.
22. Montee Ball – Rookie, Skill, good offense, but can he protect Manning is the question. If he can, he will be a top 12 RB. However, he will not be on the field if he can not pick up the blocks in pass protection. Great upside, at 22 ranked RB.
23. Le’Veon Bell – Rookie #2. I feel that his upside is not as high as Balls. His path to carries seems to be clearer. He is a good fit for the Steelers.
24. Darren Sproles – He is a RB by name, but a receiver is his job. PPR league should take him as a strong RB2. Non PPR leagues should not look at rushing totals. They should look at the whole man and see someone who is a favorite target for an elite QB on a passing team.
- Adrian Peterson – I always have felt that Peterson was an injury risk. But, last year he was able to heal quicker than anyone thought was possible from an ACL tear.(http://hofsportstalk.wordpress.com/2013/07/28/the-acl-injury-and-why-is-it-so-bad/) Then he did not just play, he was incredible. He ran for 2,097 yards. Rewarding all those fantasy players who took a risk on him last year. His owners in keeper leagues will be rewarded again this year. However, he should be the #1 pick in all single year leagues. This means that you better be picking first if you want to get him.
- Doug Martin – What a rookie season for Martin. He had over 1400 yards rushing, 49 Receptions, over 400 yards receiving, and 12 total TDs. He has a good situation in Tampa to repeat these numbers. In the end I could see upwards of 2000 combined yards and 14 TDs. His ADP is 5.8 currently at ESPN (http://games.espn.go.com/ffl/livedraftresults). I would have no problem taking him #2 overall. If you can get him at picks 3 through 6 or later, the other owners did you a favor. Run up to the board and place Martin on your team with a big smile.
- Arian Foster – Many have Foster at # 2 in their rankings. ESPN has his ADP at 2.9. I have 1 big problem with this ranking. His Receptions have gone from 66 in 2010, to 53 in 2011, and 40 in 2012. His Receiving yards also have dropped from over 600 in 2010 and 2011 to just 217 last year. That is a huge drop in value. He has been consistent in Rushing yards and TDs. So, I still need to give him credit for that. He is a good safe early first round pick.
- C.J. Spiller – I have been a big C.J. fan for years. Up to last year I had little to show for my man crush on Spiller. He was finally given the opportunity last year and he made the best of it. He should take it to the next level this year with a new coach and new system. I like him #4 overall. His ADP at Mock Draft Central (http://www.mockdraftcentral.com/report_adp.jsp) shows I am not the only one with a crush on C.J. His ADP is 3.64. That means he may not even be there at #4. If he is grab him.
- Trent Richardson – I want Richardson here for several reasons. First, he had a good start to his career last year and proved he could find the end zone. Second, he had 51 receptions last year and even if that just stays stable its a great number from your RB. Third, If he can keep from being nicked up his overall numbers will improve. I like him 6th overall behind Megatron.
- Jamaal Charles – What a year he had after ACL surgery. Maybe, he should be higher on this list when you see he has 5.8 YPC in his career. Yea, nobody has a better YPC than him. His ADP’s put him in the area of the 7th pick. I have no problem with that. I like everyone above him here but, I would have no issue if someone took him above Richardson.
- Marshawn Lynch – Lynch is in a good situation in Seattle. He has shown durability the last 3 years after having some injury issues early in his career. A safe consistent pick.
- Ray Rice – One of the best duel threat guys in the league. He has had 60 plus receptions in every year except his rookie season. You will not see any drop in those reception numbers and maybe even an increase with Pitta out for the season. His stock may rise as we see how the Ravens will make up for the lost of their possession receiver.
- Alfred Morris – If Rice is the Duel threat guy, Morris is the exact opposite of that. Lets hope he improves on the 11 receptions he had his rookie year. Even if he does not improve that number he is a solid first round option. As long as a certain coach, does not start some practice squad guy over him.
- LeSean McCoy – Shady McCoy had a rough season last year. Lets face it the Eagles had a rough season last year. I look for a bounce back year with Chip Kelly taking over the reins. McCoy is a perfect fit for what we perceive to be Chips offensive scheme. Late first round is a good time to gamble on a return to form for LeSean.
- Chris Johnson – All he does is put up 1000 plus yards every year. Yes, he will never have a 2000 yard season again. He may not be a sexy pick, but he will not hurt you either. That is why he is here in the beginning of the second round.
- Steven Jackson – Here we are again with this pick. All Jackson does is run for over 1000 yards every year. Jackson has seen some decline in his numbers. He also was playing for some bad teams. Maybe Jackson is rejuvenated now that he is on a good team. On the other hand, he is now on the wrong side of 30. He may be a high risk, high reward pick.
|6||Edwin Encarnacion||Blue Jays|
|16||Paul Konerko||White Sox|
I found their to be some big differences in opinions on Goldschmidt. ESPN’s mid May rankings http://espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/story/_/page/2013mayranks1B/fantasy-baseball-first-base-rankings-rest-2013-season have his average ranking of 4th for 1B. Not counting Posey who I feel is much more valuable at catcher. Rotowire has him at ranked 3rd at 1B http://www.rotowire.com/baseball/playerrank.htm?pos=1B. However CBS has him ranked 6th by by Scott White, 9th by Al Melchior and 6th byNando Di Fino. I heard them discuss on their podcast last week that he is a top 8 maybe top 10 1B. Fantasy Baseball : Fantasy News
Goldschmidt has been a hitting machine since he went pro. I came into this season as a huge fan. I targeted him everywhere I could and it has paid off. If you look at his numbers for the two years he spent the minors, he hit 35 hr and .314 avg in high A then followed that up with a 30hr and .306 avg in AA. This does not include the 8 hr and a .250 avg over 177 PA in the Majors the second year. That is 73 hrs in his first two years as a pro. Was his rookie campaign a disappointment with a 20 hr and .286 avg. This would have been a much bigger deal in any year where there was not a Bryce Harper or a Mike Trout. They overshadowed him with their super powers and game changing numbers at 19 and 20 years of age. Yet, Goldschmidt is just 25, although compared to them he is old, he is just reaching his prime. He has a walk rate over 9.5% every year of his pro career and a 10.2% his rookie year. This year he has been at a 12.5% rate while decreasing his strikeout rate each of his last three seasons. This year it is down to a 21.8% K rate.
I believe he is only going to get better. Get him now if you can, especially in keeper leagues. I see him growing into a .300 40 hr 15 sb guy. Hitting in the middle of the line up and carrying a Babip that seems to be holding above .330 he will be a five category guy. These numbers at first base will warrant first round value next year. He has been absolute sold gold value this year with an ADP in the 8th round and an average auction price of $12. I think that this is NOT a sell high time if you have him, if you do not have him let someone think they are selling high. In keeper leagues, he may be the best long term 1st base keeper out there. You as always need to knew your rules to find his keeper value, but I am sure that what ever they are he will be a valuable keeper next year.
Please let me know how you feel about my rankings. I will gladly offer my reasons for any of the ranks.